The college football season is still 103 days away from officially kicking off with the August 28th games, the NFL draft ended two weeks ago and NFL pre-season matchups don’t start until August 5th. With all this dead time, you’d think that sportswriters would go off and have a nice break while they wait for the next season to start up, but sportswriters aren’t like normal people.

Whatever factory it is that makes sportswriters, programs them with a need to constantly be obsessing over, fixating and postulating about something, and that something a lot of Sports analysts are choosing to focus on right now is Malik Willis.

A Sports Illustrated article stated, “He is certainly in the mix with Sam Howell and Spencer Rattler to be the first quarterback taken in the 2022 NFL Draft”, 247 Sports published an article titled “Liberty QB Malik Willis could be next ‘breakout’ quarterback”, and Todd McShay called Willis a potential “Franchise Starter” in his 2022 mock draft where he has Willis going number 15 to Washington. Vegas has also taken notice with two different sports betting sites listing Willis in the top 6 for betting favorites to be selected as the number one draft choice.

Willis is drawing attention for good reason. In his first season as a starting QB, he led Liberty to their first 10-1 season in school history and their second bowl win and he did it in electrifying fashion with a play style that combined impressive agility in the open field and (at times) pinpoint accuracy while under heavy pressure. Willis, however, also had his faults with at times questionable decision making, poor ball security and a tendency to take unnecessary hits. The question has to be asked, is this all just hype, or does Liberty really have a future first-round draft pick holding the reigns of their offense? 

PROS:

  1. Athleticism. There’s no denying that Malik Willis is an incredibly gifted athlete. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, I think he’s hands down the most versatile and impressive athlete to ever wear a Flames uniform and I don’t think there will be many who would disagree with me. Willis is just a freak of nature. His agility in the open field is eye-popping and it often takes more than one man to bring him down as he pirouettes out of harm’s way and breaks loose of arms tackles with ease. He is also capable of making unbelievable throws on the run (often across his body) long after the play has broken down and you think it is over. Willis had 20 TDs through the air last year in the 10 games he played and he added another 14 on the ground, including 4 rushing TDs in the bowl win against Coastal Carolina. Willis ended the season with 2,260 yards passing and 944 yards rushing and he almost definitely would have broken 1,000 on the ground if he hadn’t missed a game due to injury. 
  2. Football IQ. Willis came into Hugh Freeze’s offense having never started a college football game in his life and he thrived. Freeze’s offense isn’t an easy one to handle with tight end shifts, multiple backs in the backfield, pre-snap audibles and a continually rotating group of receivers. Last year, Liberty had 16 different players record a reception and 11 players catch a touchdown pass. These numbers show not only that Hugh Freeze’s offense is varied and complex, but it also shows that Willis was seeing the full field like a veteran QB and not just getting locked in on 2 or 3 main wide receivers. 
  3. Character. By all accounts, Willis is as highly thought of off the field as he is on it and is an inspiring presence in the locker room with a humble mindset despite the success he has found at LU. According to an MSN article, co-offensive coordinator Kent Austin said of Willis, “He’s one of the most humble players I’ve ever coached”. Character is important on draft day, especially for a first-round pick, because before they invest millions of dollars in an athlete, clubs want to make sure they’re going to get their money’s worth and off-field issues or locker room personality conflicts can lead to a promising player taking a quick exit from the league. We can all remember the harrowing tale of former first-round pick Johnny Manziel who I have often said in terms of pure athleticism and play style Willis bears a striking resemblance. Where Willis and Manziel clearly differ, however, (to Malik’s credit) is in their character.
  4. Winner. This relates back to character but is more about the on-field mentality. Malik Willis is a competitor who never gives up and doesn’t have a setting below 110%. One of the things I have often put as a key to the game for my game preview articles is that Willis needs to learn how to slide. Willis is looking to get in the end zone every time he takes off with the ball whether he’s at his own 10-yard line or the opponents. While I, the coaches, and the fans would like to see Willis slide more to preserve his body, the fact that he refuses to go down is just a perfect demonstration of his fighting spirit and don’t quit attitude. 

CONS:

  1. Size. The NFL Combine can make or break a player’s chances in the draft and when it comes to the combine it’s all about the measurables. As much as game-day performance and record may matter to the fans, what NFL scouts really look for is size (height, weight, hand size). The average height of an NFL starting QB is 6’3’’ and at 6’1’’ Malik Willis is well below the average height and weighing in at 215 pounds Willis is also below the average QB weight of 221. In fact, of the 59 QBs who made an NFL start last year, only 11 were less than 6’2’’. Now, size isn’t an all-determining factor as the NFL’s two shortest QBs in the NFL (Russel Wilson 5’11’’ and Kyler Murray 5’10’’) will attest, but size issues can put doubt in the back of scouts minds. Although Willis’ natural athleticism helps him mostly make up for any size disadvantage, there were times last year (especially against NC State) when Willis was forced to stay inside the pocket and appeared to have some difficulty seeing downfield. The bigger issue when it comes to size is how it may affect the all-important combine performance. Willis will need to not just perform well in the 2021 campaign but also put up above-average numbers at the combine to overcome any questions about his size and avoid hurting his draft stock.
  2. Inexperience. Willis is a fast learner, as previously mentioned, and had an outstanding performance in his first year as a starter for LU after transferring from Auburn having spent two seasons there as the backup, but the fact remains that he is still relatively inexperienced and has only 10 games so far under his belt as a starter. Now the 2021 campaign should help significantly with putting qualms about Willis to rest, but he will still have less tape than most of the other QBs being evaluated and really will be entering the 2022 draft with the playing resume of a sophomore.
  3. Decision Making. This ties into lack of experience and it is probably the biggest fault against Willis right now. Willis takes too many risks. He throws the ball across his body into heavy traffic, sometimes tries to force the ball downfield instead of looking for the guaranteed short pass, has poor ball security when running, and takes way too many hits in the open field (often refusing to slide). Now somehow Willis usually manages to turn these slights into strengths and pulls off miraculous game-changing plays, but such tricks are going to be a lot harder to pull off against NFL size defenders and if he doesn’t learn to slide he could be looking at a very short career as other scramble heavy NFL QBs before him could attest. These issues are probably all just symptomatic of limited experience and Willis certainly showed improvement throughout the 2020 season, but he is going to need to seriously clean up some of these issues during the 2021 campaign if he doesn’t want to be left hanging on the draft board or worse, sitting on the sideline nursing an injury. 
  4. He is a Group of 5 Athlete. Of Liberty’s 11 games last season, 5 were on ESPN+, 2 were on ESPNU, 1 was on ESPN2, 1 was on the ACCN and only one was on ESPN. That means that of the 11 games LU played, 5 were only stream-able online and only 1 was on a “major tv network.” Traditionally, Group of 5 players have faced challenges competing with Power 5 level players on draft day, part of this comes from lower visibility and hype and part of this comes from scouts struggling to evaluate players who compete against “lower tier” opponents. Now Willis is already generating hype beyond that of a typical Group of 5 athlete, which combined with LU’s success in the 2020 season will hopefully lead to a better television schedule for 2021, but the strength of schedule could be an issue for Willis on draft day. Of Liberty’s 12 scheduled opponents, only 2 are Power 5 and one is FCS. Right now, according to ESPN’s College Football Power Index Liberty’s 2021 schedule is rated 65th out of 130 teams. Now, this is a step up from last season when LU’s schedule was rated 76th but it’s still not where the Flames would obviously like to be. Things have been changing in recent drafts for smaller schools with QBs #2 pick Carson Wentz 2016 (FCS school NDSU), #7 pick Josh Allen 2018 (Wyoming), #26 pick Jordan Love 2020 (Utah State) and the surprise shocker this year, back to back smaller school QBs in #2 pick Zach Wilson (BYU) and #3 pick Trey Lance (FCS school NDSU) all going in the first round. However, overall (and especially in the QB department) Group of 5 players make up a tiny fraction of those chosen in the first round. 

END RESULT: WILL MALIK WILLIS BE A FIRST-ROUND DRAFT PICK?

A lot will rely on the 2021 season, the better Liberty does in the rankings and the better their bowl matchup the more publicity they will draw and the better Willis’ chances of going in the first round will be. However, like many slightly undersized athletes from smaller schools, Willis’ chances will be made or broken at the all-important combine.

Willis has created more stir than any Group of 5 player in recent seasons (even #2 draft pick Zach Wilson wasn’t generating this sort of pre-season hype) and we have yet to play a single snap of football in the 2021 season. All eyes will be on Willis as he leads Liberty through the first part of the 2021 season and it will be up to him to keep those eyes firmly fixed on him. If Willis can clean up the weak spots in his game, execute similarly to last year’s performance and put together a strong combine, he definitely could be looking at a first-round selection. However, there are a lot of hurdles in Willis’ path to a first-round pick and it’s going to take a very special season to overcome all of them completely.

It is true that Group of 5 QBs have managed to attain the first round but most of them were above the NFL height average, seasoned starters and largely pocket passers. Willis is a below-average-sized, inexperienced QB with just enough accuracy and arm strength to be termed “balanced” but certainly not fitting the mold of the average NFL QB. Smaller, more athletic QBs are making quite an impression on the NFL right now with the likes of Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, and Tua Tagovailoa, so if ever there was a chance for an out of the box QB like Willis, now is definitely the time. However, most GMs probably aren’t quite ready to throw away established NFL ideology on what makes an ideal QB quite yet.

If Willis can correct his weak spots and put up a strong pro day he should have enough teams interested to make a strong performance on draft day, however, it won’t be an easy draft board and competition will be tight for the prime spots with so many high-value players deciding to come back for this 2021 season.

MY FINAL ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION

I think it is likely that Willis will impress like he did last year, get on SportsCenter more than once, and maybe even stir up a little dark horse Heisman hype, but I think that he will also struggle to entirely correct the deficiencies in his game and official measurements at the Combine will leave some GMs doubtful about pulling the trigger after a middle of the pack combine performance. I am hopeful for a mid to late first-round selection, but I think an early call on the second day of the draft is more likely. 

Written by Mr. Exclamation Point.