It’s never too early to set some expectations.

Liberty football finished 8-5 last year, riding a hot 8-1 start and securing a second top 25 ranking in three seasons. The Flames are now looking to achieve a fifth straight bowl game and compete for a conference championship in the first year in Conference USA all under first year head coach Jamey Chadwell.

With football’s return on the horizon, it’s time to look ahead and release our way-too-early projections for the upcoming season.

I rank each matchup with the following labels: Solid Win, Lean Win, Toss-Up, Lean Loss, and Solid Loss.

Note: SP+ offensive and defensive rankings courtesy of ESPN. All over/under win totals courtesy of DraftKings. For context, Liberty ranks 78th in offensive SP and 96th in defensive SP for the upcoming season and has an O/U of 9.0 wins.

Sept. 2: Home vs Bowling Green (Off. SP: 101st, Def. SP: 128th, O/U 5)

Solid Win: This game is in the solid win column but it does scare me a tad. I think Bowling Green can make things interesting as Liberty opens up a new season with a new coaching staff and a lot of new faces on the team.

Sept. 9: Home vs New Mexico State (Off. SP: 112th, Def. SP: 116th, O/U 5.5)

Lean Win: It’s hard to overlook the score of last year’s loss in the regular season finale against New Mexico State. Of course, there were extenuating circumstances that played a large part in that game. Still, Diego Pavia can be a problem at quarterback. I lean win but wouldn’t be shocked if the Flames are upset.

Sept. 16: Road at Buffalo (Off. SP: 83rd, Def. SP: 113th, O/U 6.5)

Lean Loss: Buffalo has a solid program and has some experience with head coach Jamey Chadwell and his staff from their games at Coastal Carolina. This will be the first road test for the Flames and a game that is certainly winnable, but I do lean towards a loss in this, especially with it coming so early in the season.

Sept. 23: Road at FIU (Off. SP: 105th, Def. SP: 121st, O/U 3)

Lean Win: I think a lot of people are sleeping on FIU. They should easily surpass their win total of 3. Are they good enough to challenge the Flames on their home field? This could be a game that is easily marked as a win for the Flames, but with the conference race implications added to the mix, this game could be closer than expected.

Oct. 5: Home vs Sam Houston (Off. SP: 131st, Def. SP: 70th, O/U 4)

Solid Win: Sam Houston has a chance to build a very strong program at the FBS level. It will likely take them a year or two to get in their groove, but they are a storied program. At home with an extended layoff, the Flames should take care of business here.

Oct. 10: Road at Jacksonville State (Off. SP: 92nd, Def. SP: 132nd, O/U 5)

Toss-up: If this game was played at Williams Stadium and Liberty had a full week’s rest, I’d probably have this in the solid win category. With it being on the road and with the Flames coming off just five days’ rest, this will be a difficult challenge.

Oct. 17: Home vs Middle Tennessee (Off. SP: 104th, Def. SP: 98th, O/U 6.5)

Lean Win: MTSU is expected to be one of the primary challengers for a conference title in the CUSA this season. They should test the Flames, but I think Liberty pulls out the win here.

Oct. 24: Road at Western Kentucky (Off. SP: 54th, Def. SP: 117th, O/U 8.5)

Lean Loss: All eyes are expected to be on this game as it will likely go a long way in determining who finishes atop the CUSA regular season standings. WKU has more answers entering the season than Liberty does, especially when you look at the quarterback position. Due to that and the fact that the Hilltoppers will be playing at home, they should be favored.

Nov. 4: Home vs Louisiana Tech (Off. SP: 58th, Def. SP: 133rd, O/U 5.5)

Solid Win: By November, Liberty should be hitting its stride under first year head coach Jamey Chadwell. Louisiana Tech is an improving program, but the Flames should be favored here.

Nov. 11: Home vs Old Dominion (Off. SP: 128th, Def. SP: 76th, O/U 4.5)

Lean Win: These two teams went down to the wire in Norfolk a year ago, and the Monarchs will be looking to come into Lynchburg and exacting some revenge. The Flames have owned this series since moving to the FBS, but I don’t expect an easy win here.

Nov. 18: Home vs UMass (Off. SP: 130th, Def. SP: 101st, O/U 2)

Solid Win: Liberty has dominated UMass the past several years. That shouldn’t change this season.

Nov. 25: Road at UTEP (Off. SP: 108th, Def. SP: 111th, O/U 5.5)

Toss-up: This will be a long road trip for the Flames and many expect UTEP to be near the top of the CUSA. This is a game that could go either way and could have strong implications on the CUSA title chase.

Final updated predictions:

  • best-case scenario: 10-2, realistic record: 9-3

How realistic are these predictions?