ESPN’s Matchup Predictor has been updated for the 2021 college football season, and it has the Flames being favored to win in nine out of 12 regular season games this coming season. Did they get it right?

Here’s a game-by-game look at Liberty’s current percentage chance at winning each game based on the ESPN Matchup Predictor and ESPN’s Football Power Index:

  • 98.9% chance to win vs Campbell
  • 37.6% chance to win at Troy
  • 93.7% chance to win vs Old Dominion
  • 57.6% chance to win at Syracuse
  • 39.8% chance to win at UAB
  • 79.5% chance to win vs Middle Tennessee
  • 84.3% chance to win at Louisiana-Monroe
  • 56.8% chance to win at North Texas
  • 96.1% chance to win vs UMass
  • 14.6% chance to win at Ole Miss
  • 53.0% chance to win vs Louisiana
  • 62.1% chance to win vs Army

Based on ESPN’s Matchup Predictor, Liberty is predicted to lose three games, all on the road – at Troy, UAB, and Ole Miss. The Flames also have between 53-62.1% chance of defeating Syracuse, North Texas, Louisiana, and Army. Games against Campbell, Old Dominion, Middle Tennessee, Louisiana-Monroe, and UMass, Liberty is given greater than a 79.5% chance to win.

Liberty is coming off a record campaign in 2020 when the Flames finished 10-1 following the team’s dramatic bowl win over Coastal Carolina in the Cure Bowl.  The Flames also picked up the program’s first ever wins over an ACC opponent when Liberty defeated Syracuse and Virginia Tech. Those two wins made Liberty the first non-Power Five team to post a pair of wins over ACC schools in the same season since Houston did so in 2015. Liberty finished the 2020 season ranked No. 17 in the Associated Press Top 25 poll and No. 18 in the Amway Coaches Poll, the highest ever ranking for the Flames as an FBS program.

Liberty will open the 2021 season at home on Sept. 4 against Campbell. The Flames will host five more home games throughout the season: Old Dominion (Sept. 18), Middle Tennessee (Oct. 9), UMass (Oct. 30), Louisiana (Nov. 20), and Army (Nov. 27).