The 2025 ESPN Football Power Index projects Liberty to finish the upcoming season under second year head coach Jamey Chadwell at 8.1-4.5 (so basically 8 wins). According to the metric, the Flames have a 0.2% chance to go undefeated. FPI also gives Liberty a 92% chance to win six games or more and advance to a seventh straight bowl game.
The metric also makes projections for each game of the 2025 Liberty football schedule. let’s take a look at the percentages for a Flames’ victory in each game on the schedule.
For those that aren’t familiar with the FPI, you can read the definition of the index here.
Football Power Index (abbreviated as FPI) is a predictive rating system developed by ESPN that measures team strength and uses it to forecast game and season results. Each team’s FPI rating is composed of predictive offensive, defensive, and special teams value, as measured by a function of expected points added (EPA). That rating is the basis for FPI’s game-level and season-level projections.
Below, you can see the likelihood of Liberty football winning each of their games on the 2025 football schedule, according to this metric.
LIBERTY’S GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS (Team FPI Rank)
94.5% – Aug. 30 vs Maine (N/A)
50.6% – Sep. 06 at Jacksonville State* (105)
49.6% – Sep. 13 at Bowling Green (102)
43.3% – Sep. 20 vs James Madison (76)
35.8% – Sep. 27 at Old Dominion (79)
66.0% – Oct. 08 at UTEP* (132)
84.1% – Oct. 14 vs New Mexico State* (135)
77.8% – Nov. 01 vs Delaware* (124)
72.5% – Nov. 08 vs Missouri State* (119)
54.2% – Nov. 15 at FIU* (107)
61.8% – Nov. 22 at Louisiana Tech* (123)
79.7% – Nov. 29 vs Kennesaw State* (131)
*CUSA game
