ESPN’s Football Power Index has ranked Liberty as #114 out of 130 FBS programs entering the 2019 season, the Flames’ first as a full-fledged member of college football’s top classification.
The FPI projection has Liberty winning 5.6 games in 2019, despite having a greater than 50% chance of winning 7 games. Liberty’s two matchups with FCS programs are given the highest win probability with a 97.3% likelihood of beating Hampton and 78.2% chance of beating Maine. The Flames are also given a 74.4% chance of winning the regular season finale against New Mexico State. Other games Liberty is in the “green” on are Buffalo (55.3%), New Mexico (63.0%), @ New Mexico State (51.8%), and @ UMass (56.9%).
In the season and home opener on August 31st against Syracuse, Liberty is given just a 15.4% chance of winning. The following week, when the Flames hit the road for the first time in the Hugh Freeze era, Liberty is given a 27.7% chance off knocking off Louisiana. On October 26th, the Flames travel to New Jersey to face Rutgers with a 24.4% chance at the win, according to FPI.
The back-to-back matchups at BYU and Virginia in November are the least likely wins on the 2019 calendar, according to the FPI. The Flames are given a 5.9% chance of beating fellow Independent BYU and just a 6.9% chance at beating the Cavaliers in Charlottesville.