On Tuesday, the initial College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings are released, and, for the first time in school history, those rankings are likely to have an impact on Liberty’s bowl destination.

With Liberty’s start at 8-0 this season and having already clinched a spot in the CUSA Championship Game set for Friday, Dec. 1, conversation has begun turning towards the possibility of the Flames making a New Year’s Six Bowl Game.

The highest ranked Group of Five champion in the final College Football Playoff Rankings receives an automatic bid to a New Year’s Six game. This year, that champion will play in either the Fiesta Bowl, Peach Bowl, or Cotton Bowl.

The conference champions from Conference USA, the AAC, the MAC, the Sun Belt, and the Mountain West will be eligible to receive this bid. So, if Liberty were to win the CUSA championship, it would have a one in five chance of reaching the NY6.

How do the Flames currently compare to the rest of the top competition in the other G5 conferences?

First of all, with Liberty’s strength of schedule ranking, the Flames will not be strongly considered for a NY6 unless they win out to finish the season at 13-0 prior to the bowl game.

If Liberty goes undefeated, there’s no way a three (or more) loss team would get the spot ahead of the Flames. So, let’s start there. Here is a list of the teams in the G5 conferences that currently have 2 or fewer losses:

AAC

#21 Tulane (7-1, 4-0)
SMU (6-2, 4-0)
Memphis (6-2, 3-1)

All three could be in play to be ranked ahead of Liberty if they win out.

MAC

Toledo (7-1, 4-0)
Miami (7-2, 4-1)

Miami’s losses have come to Miami (FL) and Toledo and they have a win over Cincinnati. If they win out, which would likely include a win over Toledo in the MAC Championship game, the RedHawks could make a case to be ranked ahead of Liberty.

Toledo could be in play to be ranked ahead of Liberty if they win out.

Mountain West

#17 Air Force (8-0, 5-0)
Fresno State (7-1, 3-1)
UNLV (6-2, 3-1)

All three could be in play to be ranked ahead of Liberty if they win out.

Sun Belt

#23 JMU (ineligible for Sun Belt Championship & New Year’s Six)
Georgia State (6-2, 3-2)
Georgia Southern (6-2, 3-1)
Troy (6-2, 3-1)

With JMU being ineligible, the remaining three teams all have very questionable resumes with bad losses. It would be unlikely they would finish ahead of an unbeaten Liberty in the rankings even if they win out.

That brings us to 8 teams that are in contention to potentially be ranked ahead of Liberty if they were to win their conference championship. These are the teams that Liberty fans want to root against, the more losses they have the better. Also, if a team not on this list wins their conference championship, that would greatly benefit the Flames.

Let’s break down these teams’ resumes:

AAC

#21 Tulane (7-1, 4-0)

P5 wins: N/A
Best non-P5 win: Memphis (31-21)
Losses: #20 Ole Miss (37-20)
FPI: 47
SOR: 22
SOS: 98
Remaining schedule (% chance to win): @ East Carolina (74.9%), vs Tulsa (92.0%), @ FAU (66.6%), vs UTSA (66.5%)

SMU (6-2, 4-0)

P5 wins: N/A
Best non-P5 win: Charlotte (34-16)
Losses: #19 Oklahoma (28-11), TCU (34-17)
FPI: 19
SOR: 44
SOS: 70
Remaining schedule: @ Rice (86.3%), vs North Texas (95.6%), @ Memphis (74.1%), vs Navy (96.6%)

Memphis (6-2, 3-1)

P5 wins: N/A
Best non-P5 win: Boise State (35-32)
Losses: Missouri (34-27), Tulane (31-21)
FPI: 54
SOR: 54
SOS: 114
Remaining schedule: vs South Florida (84.5%), @ Charlotte (81.9%), vs SMU (25.9%), @ Temple (92.4%)

MAC

Toledo (7-1, 4-0)

P5 wins: N/A
Best non-P5 win: San Jose State (21-17)
Losses: Illinois (30-28)
FPI: 64
SOR: 37
SOS: 128
Remaining schedule: vs Buffalo (85.2%), vs Eastern Michigan (88.2%), @ Bowling Green (70%), @ Central Michigan (79.8%)

Miami (7-2, 4-1)

P5 wins: Cincinnati (31-24 in OT)
Best non-P5 win: Bowling Green (27-0)
Losses: Miami (38-3), Toledo (21-17)
FPI: 71
SOR: 46
SOS: 102
Remaining schedule: vs Akron (94.1%), @ Buffalo (83.2%), @ Ball State (82.5%)

Mountain West

#17 Air Force (8-0, 5-0)

P5 wins: N/A
Best non-P5 win: Wyoming (34-27)
Losses: N/A
FPI: 46
SOR: 18
SOS: 131
Remaining schedule: vs Army (88.2%), @ Hawaii (87.1%), vs UNLV (77.2%), @ Boise State (52.6%)

UNLV (6-2, 3-1)

P5 wins: Vanderbilt (40-37)
Best non-P5 win: Colorado State (25-23)
Losses: #2 Michigan (35-7), Fresno State (31-24)
FPI: 84
SOR: 49
SOS: 52
Remaining schedule: @ New Mexico (71.6%), vs Wyoming (56.9%), @ #19 Air Force (22.8%), vs San Jose State (48%)

Fresno State (7-1, 3-1)

P5 wins: Purdue (39-35), Airzona State (29-0)
Best non-P5 win: UNLV (31-24)
Losses: Wyoming (24-19)
FPI: 57
SOR: 32
SOS: 126
Remaining schedule: vs Boise State (59%), @ San Jose State (48.6%), vs New Mexico (89.7%), @ San Diego State (79%)

Here is Liberty’s resume:

Liberty (8-0, 6-0)

P5 wins: N/A
Best non-P5 win: Western Kentucky (42-29)
Losses: N/A
FPI: 56
SOR: 19
SOS: 133
Remaining schedule: vs Louisiana Tech (86.9%), vs Old Dominion (83.5%), vs UMass (91.7%), @ UTEP (83.8%)

SUMMARY

MAC

  • Against a MAC champion, whether it is Toledo or Miami Ohio, Liberty would be able to make an argument for a better resume. Of course, if either of them lose a game down the stretch, it would help pad that cushion, though both are heavy favorites the rest of the way until a potential conference championship meeting.

MOUNTAIN WEST

  • In the Mountain West, UNLV is an underdog in two of their games and close to a toss-up in a third. One more loss, which is likely, for the Rebels and they would be clearly behind Liberty.
  • Fresno State also has a couple of tough regular season games remaining, in their next two contests, that are close to a toss-up. The Flames really need them to drop one of these, if not two down the stretch.
  • Air Force is already ahead of Liberty and would need to lose at least one game, if not two.
  • Hopefully a 3-loss UNLV ends up the MWC champion or someone else like Boise State or San Jose State.

AAC

  • The AAC is most likely to end up sending their champ to a New Year’s Six Bowl.
  • Memphis and SMU play each other in a couple weeks. Both have two losses already, a loss here would eliminate the other. Flames’ fans should root hard for Memphis in that one because SMU would definitely have a better resume than Liberty whereas Memphis has a more questionable resume.
  • Tulane absolutely must lose a game down the stretch if Liberty will finish ahead of them. Even with one loss, they would have an argument. Hopefully they don’t win the AAC championship.
  • Best case scenario for the Flames here would be if someone like UTSA or FAU won the league’s championship.

Liberty will certainly need some help to get to a New Year’s Six, but most importantly, the team must win out. Take care of business and see where the chips fall. It should be a fun final month to the regular season.