1. BALL SECURITY 

If there has been one consistent critique of the Liberty offense, it’s turnovers. The turnovers have been primarily the fault of LU’s star QB Malik Willis. Willis’ issue hasn’t been interceptions, as one would expect from a QB who has never started at the collegiate level (Willis has thrown only one pick all year), it’s been fumbles. Liberty has fumbled the ball 16 times this season but through a combination of luck and great awareness has only lost 8 of them. Not all of the fumbles were on Willis but the majority of them have been. If Liberty wants to come out and win against an NC State team that will be well prepared for the high flying Flames, they need to eliminate drive-killing mistakes that could end up turning the tide of the game. Liberty should probably have beaten Virginia Tech by two scores two weeks ago but instead had to leave the fate of the game to a very long field goal which miraculously went straight through the uprights. Liberty might not get that lucky this week, so they need to hold onto the ball and finish drives with points.

Photo Credit: Liberty Athletics

2. MORE CONSISTENCY IN THE KICKING GAME

Alex Barbir is 2/2 from 50 yards or more, 5/5 inside of 29, but only 2/7 from 30-49! I talked through the potential reasons for this in my review of the WCU game. Barbir is incredible from deep but what Liberty needs most isn’t a kicker who can make the trick shots from long range but one who can consistently make the midrange kicks when the drives stall out and LU needs to at least get 3 points on the board to keep the game close or perhaps get up two scores. With how evenly matched these two teams are (Vegas is giving NC State the edge by only 3.5 points), the kicking game is likely going to become a key factor and Barbir needs to find a way to get it in from 40 as well as from 50. 

 

3. EMPHASIZE THE SHORT GAME

I expect NC State to bring a lot of secondary blitzes to try and stop LU’s QB run game while also attempting to limit the time Willis has to throw. I also expect the Wolfpack to play a lot of high safeties to take away Liberty’s deep options which have been an especially huge factor in the second half of the season. Willis is not going to have a lot of time to find WRs and the deep routes will likely be nailed down so the key is going to be finding the outlet receiver. If Liberty can work in the screen game and the TE/RB release into the flat, it will greatly undermine the NC State pass rush and should provide opportunities for big runs after the catch. If NC State is sending a CB or a Safety on a blitz, someone is going to be uncovered and Willis just needs to keep doing what he’s done all year which is keep his eyes downfield on the scramble and find the open man. Liberty needs to work the middle of the field and the outside boundaries to take what the defense gives them and eventually the NC State D will start to cheat up which will open up opportunities deep down the field. As the setup play is Hugh Freeze’s specialty, I anticipate no difficulty for LU in meeting this key. 

SUMMARY:

Liberty is off to their first 8-0 start in program history and has a chance to add another accolade to their season by beating their third ACC team of the year. Two weeks ago, Liberty managed to pull off the W against historic ACC powerhouse Virginia Tech. However, NC State may present the biggest challenge on Liberty’s schedule this season and Hugh Freeze said as much in his weekly press conference. NC State is without their starting QB after he broke a fibula against Duke but the backup QB (Bailey Hockman) has looked good and was within 3 points of mastering an upset over then #11 Miami two weeks ago. Hockman is predominantly a pocket passer who in 6 games has thrown for over 1000 yards and 8 TDs. However, he has also thrown 6 interceptions so the opportunities will be there for the Liberty defense to come up big in this game.

If VT is forced to rely on the ground game, they have two backs who can get it done in Person and Knight who each have over 400 yards rushing this season. While Liberty may have caught VT napping, NC State won’t be sleeping on the Flames. The Playoff Rankings come out on Tuesday, so this is Liberty’s chance to prove to the Committee that they deserve to be treated with more respect than what they have gotten from the Associated Press and that their undefeated record is as impressive as BYU’s or Cincinnati’s (Liberty already has more Power 5 wins at 2 than either of those teams who have 0). I have picked against the Flames only once this season and I won’t be making that mistake again. I think Willis has another SportsCenter worthy performance as he marches towards a dark horse Heisman bid and Liberty’s defense continues to surprise with a strong performance Saturday. 

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: LIBERTY 35 vs NC ST 31

Written by Mr. Exclamation Point