For years, Bill Connelly’s advanced SP metrics have been one of the most respected predictors of college football performance in the business. So much so, that the math warlock has taken his creation to join the family at ESPN.com, where he can be found giving his thoughts on college football and other topics.
Recently Connelly has begun releasing his 2020 projections for all 130 FBS teams, one at a time from the lowest to highest. Tuesday, was Liberty’s turn.
Before we get into the projection, a quick explainer on the three factors that he uses. The first is recruiting rankings. He weights the four previous recruiting classes from 67% for the most recent, 15% from last year’s class, 15% from the year before that 3% for the oldest. The next factor is returning production. He applies returning production to how the teams finished in the various S&P elements the year before, making this the most predictive of the factors. The final piece is recent history. By looking at how programs have performed the previous five years, it helps to lessen the impact of an outlying especially good or bad season.
Here was Connelly’s first tweet on the Jags:
Got distracted and almost forgot, but … GET IN THAT HOSPITAL BED AND TAKE IT WHEREVER YOU WANT. IT’S GOT WHEELS FOR A REASON. IT’S LIBERTY DAY. pic.twitter.com/AvQSUpcOwi
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) March 10, 2020
Being new to the FBS, the Flames are new to the SP ratings, but under first year head coach Hugh Freeze, Liberty took a huge surge in 2019.
Hugh Freeze’s … unique quirks aside, he’s a heck of a coach, and I was pretty sure landing at Liberty was going to work out well for both parties. So far, so good. Went 8-5 with wins over Buffalo and Ga S’ern in his first year. Surged from 99th to 75th in SP+ in Nov/Dec. pic.twitter.com/eF7NHCaF1H
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) March 10, 2020
An awesome ’19 offense will look a lot different in ’20–QB Calvert and WR Gandy-Golden are gone. Lots of experience otherwise. QB will be battle royale between RSFR Johnathan Bennett, SO Brandon Robinson, and 2 transfers (Maine’s Chris Ferguson, Auburn’s Malik Willis). pic.twitter.com/ITdatep9qC
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) March 10, 2020
Liberty’s D improved late in ’19, holding UMass/NMSU/GS to 4.1 yds/play. More aggressive than successful for much of the year, though. 2 of their best havoc guys were freshmen–DE TreShaun Clark and CB Kei’Trei Clark. Former NC State S Tim Kidd-Glass has havoc potential, too. pic.twitter.com/l8N1l92z9Y
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) March 10, 2020
2 FCS opps, 5 FBS opps projected 114th or worse, and theoretically winnable games against Cuse and So Miss. This should be another bowl-eligible year for LU even if the O regresses. We’ll see if there’s a bowl available. pic.twitter.com/dpwJ7YQewB
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) March 10, 2020
As you can see, Connelly projects Liberty to win 6.7 games and are given an 80.4% chance at a bowl game. One thing he might not know, is Liberty has bowl agreements with numerous bowl games beginning in 2020 including the Boca Raton Bowl, Camellia Bowl, Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl, Myrtle Beach Bowl, and New Mexico Bowl.
He projects the Flames to be 105th in SP next year, but the caveat of continued improvement under Coach Freeze despite key personnel losses gives hope for much more.
Connelly projects wins over Western Carolina (98%), UMass (90%), North Carolina A&T (74%), Bowling Green (73%), UL Monroe (69%), UConn (68%), and FIU (63%). The Flames are also given reasonable chances against Syracuse (37%) and Southern Miss (45%).
Most likely win totals are between 4 and 8 wins, with 5 wins checking at 13.6% likely, 6 wins at 24.1%, 7 wins and 27%, and 8 wins at 19%.
