After #19 Charleston Southern beat #1 Coastal Carolina Saturday night, we were asked by several of you what this means for Liberty and its playoff hopes this season. To clear up some confusion, here are a couple clarification points on where the Flames stand right now:

First, here are the up-to-the-minute Big South Football Standings

  1. Charleston Southern 4-0
  2. Coastal Carolina 2-1
  3. Kennesaw State 2-1
  4. Gardner-Webb 2-2
  5. Liberty 1-2
  6. Monmouth 1-3
  7. Presbyterian 0-3

Honestly, Charleston Southern’s win doesn’t change Liberty’s hopes much. Someone had to lose that game, and the fact it was Coastal isn’t surprising. CSU was favored, and they are a legit Big South contender. Actually, they have proven to this point they are the best team in the conference. Their win was no fluke. The Bucs are 7-1 and 4-0 in Big South play. Prior to their 33-25 win over #1 Coastal Carolina last night, they had won their first 3 Big South games by a combined 81-14.

Ok, so what does Liberty need in order to win the Big South’s automatic bid:

  1. First, the Flames must win out. With games against Presbyterian, CSU, and Coastal, this is no small feat.
  2. Charleston Southern must lose to Kennesaw State next week. If CSU defeats the Owls in Atlanta, the Buccaneers clinch the Big South’s automatic bid.
  3. Kennesaw State must beat CSU, and then lose to either Coastal Carolina OR Presbyterian.
  4. Gardner-Webb must lose at least 1 of their remaining Big South games. The Runnin’ Bulldogs play at Coastal Carolina next Saturday and close the regular season on November 21st hosting Monmouth.
  5. If all of the above happens, it will create a 4-way tie for first place at 4-2 between CSU, Liberty, Coastal, and Kennesaw State. In this scenario, the Flames would win the tiebreaker since it would be 3-0 against the other teams tied.

Now, let’s assume Liberty wins out, but they don’t win the automatic bid. Then, the Flames will have to rely on the selection committee to pick them as an at-large. This, in my opinion, is Liberty’s best path to the playoffs, but it still faces an uphill battle.

  1. This means 3 Big South teams would make the playoff field for the first time ever. A 9-2 Coastal Carolina team with losses to Charleston Southern and Liberty is a LOCK for an at-large. We can sit here and debate their resume all we want, but the committee will not leave out a 9-2 Chanticleer squad. It won’t happen.
  2. I also have a hard time believing the Big South will get 3 teams. This is why I thought it would be best for Coastal to beat CSU last night. I think Liberty gets in over a 7-4 CSU team with the head-to-head win.
  3. At 7-4, the Flames would be squarely on the bubble with 2 BAD losses to Gardner-Webb and Monmouth. Liberty would be relying on their wins over 2 playoff teams in Charleston Southern and Coastal Carolina and the win over FBS Georgia State. As we’ve mentioned before, the Georgia State win isn’t great as they are currently 2-5, but it’s still an FBS win. Also, Montana is 4-4 right now and not looking like they will make the playoffs unless they win out. So, that win isn’t looking as good as we once thought.

How strong is the playoff bubble and who would be Liberty’s competition? We will be breaking down the other candidates for an at-large on the site weekly beginning this week. Buckle up, November’s forecast looks bumpy.