Some pretty definitive results shaped the projections this week. And like usual, as we get closer to the end of the FCS season, the picture becomes more clear. It was definitely a great week for Liberty’s chances. More on that below…
Notable Results:
#8 Charleston Southern lost to Gardner-Webb 17-10
#10 Villanova beat Maine 26-7
Albany lost to Delaware 33-17
#25 Stony Brook lost to William & Mary 14-9
UT Martin beat Eastern Illinois 33-17
South Dakota lost to Southern Illinois 35-28
#4 North Dakota State beat #15 Youngstown State 24-3
#7 JMU beat #6 Richmond 47-43
#3 Eastern Washington beat #14 Cal Poly 42-21
National Seeds:
1 Sam Houston State* (Southland) – Sam Houston keeps cruising, this week McNeese was the victim. It doesn’t look like they will lose a game, but is their schedule tough enough to merit the #1 seed?
2 Jacksonville State* (OVC) – The Gamecocks are still rolling. This could be the year for JSU.
3 North Dakota State – Dominating performance against a solid Youngstown State. The Bison seem to be getting into playoff form.
4 Eastern Washington* (Big Sky) – Cal Poly was unable to keep the game competitive late. Even with the North Dakota win streak, Eastern is the class of the Big Sky.
5 James Madison* (CAA) – Biggest win of the year for the Dukes this past week over Richmond in a game that lived up to its billing. JMU is close to an undefeated FCS season under a first year head coach.
6 The Citadel* (SoCon) – Big win over Samford for the Bulldogs. No matter what this team finds a way to win.
7 Chattanooga – The Mocs are back in the seeding thanks to the Richmond and CSU losses. Subtract out the Citadel loss and this team is top 5.
8 North Dakota – Winners of 8 in a row, this team is hot. They are undefeated in Big Sky play, but thanks to the scheduling in that conference, they will not play Eastern Washington.
* Projected Conference Auto-bid
Conference Projections
Big Sky
Auto-Bid:
Eastern Washington (6-0, 8-1)^
At-Large:
North Dakota (6-0, 7-2)^
Cal Poly (4-2, 6-3)
Montana (3-3, 6-3)
Bubble:
Northern Arizona (4-2, 5-4)
^ Denotes 7 Division 1 win mark achieved
Big South
Auto-Bid:
Liberty (4-0, 6-3)
At Large:
Charleston Southern (2-1, 5-3)
Colonial
Auto-Bid:
James Madison (6-0, 8-1)^
At-Large:
Richmond (4-2, 7-2)^
Villanova (5-1, 7-2)^
New Hampshire (5-1, 6-3)
^ Denotes 7 Division 1 win mark achieved
Missouri Valley
Auto-Bid:
South Dakota State (5-1, 6-3)
At-Large:
North Dakota State (5-1, 8-1)^
Youngstown State (4-2, 6-3)
Western Illinois (3-3, 6-3)
^ Denotes 7 Division 1 win mark achieved
Northeast
Auto-Bid:
St. Francis (PA) (4-0, 6-3)
Ohio Valley
Auto-Bid:
Jacksonville State (5-0, 8-1)^
Bubble:
Tennessee State (3-2, 6-3)
UT Martin (5-1, 6-4)
^ Denotes 7 Division 1 win mark achieved
Patriot
Auto-Bid:
Lehigh (5-0, 8-2)^* Clinched Patriot Auto-Bid
^ Denotes 7 Division 1 win mark achieved
Pioneer
Auto-Bid:
San Diego (6-0, 7-1)
Bubble:
Dayton (6-1, 8-2)^
^ Denotes 7 Division 1 win mark achieved
Southern
Auto-Bid:
Citadel (7-0, 9-0)^* Clinched SoCon Auto-Bid
At-Large:
Chattanooga (6-1, 8-1)^
Samford (4-2, 6-3)
Wofford (4-2, 6-3)
Southland
Auto-Bid:
Sam Houston State (6-0, 8-0)^
At-Large:
Central Arkansas (6-0, 7-1)^
^ Denotes 7 Division 1 win mark achieved
Where is Liberty?
This past week was big for LU’s at-large chances. Big enough that, if the Flames get to 7 wins, it is very likely that they will be in the playoffs. The Stony Brook, Maine, and Albany losses can’t be overstated. Those 3 teams are all likely to get the benefit of the doubt over Liberty if they get to 7 wins. Eastern Illinois and South Dakota going down helped as well. Meanwhile, the Charleston Southern loss puts the Flames in the auto-bid seat for the Big South. Of course, that particular spot all comes down to Saturday’s game in Lynchburg. The Flames can lock up the playoffs, and take some drama out of the Coastal game with a win. Speaking of which, A Sea of Red really needs to pack Williams Stadium tomorrow. This is the biggest home game in school history, even if it is against the Bucs.
