In seasons past, we here at A Sea of Red have spent countless hours producing FCS Playoff projections.  Thankfully those days are over.  Now we have the privilege of Bowl projections!

With Liberty in their final season of transition to FBS, the Flames are not technically earmarked for bowl eligibility.  However, should Liberty get to 6 eligible victories (5 FBS wins + 1 FCS win would do the trick) they would go to a bowl game if there are not enough FBS teams eligible to fill all of the bowl slots.

There are a ton of moving pieces here, but the gist of the situation is this: Liberty currently sits at 4-3 with 3 FBS wins plus their 1 eligible FCS win against Idaho State.  This means the Flames will need to win 2 of their next 4 games, with the season finale against FCS Norfolk State being irrelevant to LU’s bowl hopes.  Should the Flames get over that hurdle, they will need 52 FBS teams to finish with less than 6 eligible victories.

That’s the Reader’s Digest version (does Reader’s Digest still exist?) of things.  We can get into the weeds on the technicalities and contingencies 1-582824821 of NCAA bylaws, but that seems ridiculous right now.  Let’s just look at the the teams who are in, the teams who are out, and everyone in between.

Number of Teams Eliminated: 13 (+6 from last week)

Number of Teams Bowl Eligible: 38 (+10)

Liberty’s Magic Number: 39 Teams need to be eliminated

Number of 5 Win Teams (1 Win from Eligibility): 25 (+1)

Number of 6 Loss Teams (1 Loss from Elimination): 14 (+2)

Number of 5 Loss Teams (2 Losses from Elimination): 17 (+2)

Number of 4 Loss Teams (3 Losses from Elimination): 20 (-1)

Number of 4-3 Teams: 5 (including Liberty)

Number of FPI Projected Ineligible Teams: 55 (Including Liberty)

Bowl Eligible Teams

Eliminated Teams

Central Florida Connecticut
South Florida Tulsa
Cincinnati Old Dominion
Houston Western Kentucky
Clemson New Mexico State
Boston College Arkansas
Syracuse Rutgers
Virginia Texas El-Paso
West Virginia Rice
Texas Bowling Green
Oklahoma Kent State
Oklahoma State Central Michigan
Penn State San Jose State
Michigan
Iowa
Florida International
Louisiana Tech
Alabama-Birmingham
North Texas
Army
Notre Dame
Buffalo
Western Michigan
Boise State
Utah State
Fresno State
San Diego State
Hawaii
Washington
Utah
Washington State
Kentucky
Florida
Georgia
Alabama
Louisiana State
Troy
Georgia Southern

 

6 Loss Teams

Team

Upcoming Opponent

ESPN FPI Chance of Victory

FPI Projected Final Record

Navy (2-6) @ Cincinnati 11.6%  3-10
Louisville (2-6) @ #2 Clemson 0.8% 2-10
North Carolina (1-6) Georgia Tech 24.1% 2-9
Nebraska (2-6) @ #8 Ohio State 4.5% 3-9
UMass (3-6) Liberty 56.3% 4-8
Ball State (3-6) @ Toledo 12.5% 3-9
Colorado State (3-6) BYE N/A 3-9
Wyoming (3-6) San Jose State 83.3% 5-7
UNLV (2-6) #20 Fresno State 5.1% 2-10
Oregon State (2-6) USC 13.2% 2-10
UCLA (2-6) @ Oregon 23.0% 2-10
Georgia State (2-6) Texas State 75.2% 3-9
South Alabama (2-6) @ Arkansas State 13.4% 2-10
Texas State (2-6) @ Georgia State 24.8% 2-10

 

5 Loss Teams

Team

Upcoming Opponent

ESPN FPI Chance of Victory

FPI Projected Final Record

East Carolina (2-5) Memphis 11.4% 3-9
Southern Methodist (3-5) #17 Houston 19.2% 4-8
Tulane (3-5) South Florida 32.9% 5-7
Kansas (3-5) Iowa State 20.5% 3-9
Kansas State (3-5) @ Texas Christian 21.4% 4-8
Texas Christian (3-5) Kansas State 78.6% 6-6
Indiana (4-5) BYE N/A 5-7
Illinois (3-5) Minnesota 29.6% 3-9
Florida Atlantic (3-5) @ Florida International 33.1% 5-7
Texas San Antonio  (3-5) @ Alabama Birmingham 8.9% 3-9
Miami-Ohio (3-5) @ Buffalo 32.5% 5-7
Eastern Michigan    (4-5) Central Michigan 82.8% 7-5
New Mexico (3-5) San Diego State 30.9% 3-9
Air Force (3-5) @ Army 20.0% 6-6
Arizona (4-5) Colorado 62.6% 5-7
Vanderbilt (4-5) BYE N/A 5-7
Tennessee (3-5) Charlotte 93.6% 4-8

 

4 Loss Teams

Team

Upcoming Opponent

ESPN FPI Chance of Victory

FPI Projected Final Record

Memphis (4-4) @ East Carolina 88.6% 8-4
Florida State (4-4) @ NC State 24.5% 4-8
Wake Forest (4-4) #22 Syracuse 35.0% 5-7
Pittsburgh (4-4) @ #23 Virginia 28.1% 4-8
Georgia Tech (4-4) @ North Carolina 75.9% 6-6
Baylor (4-4) Oklahoma State 34.1% 4-8
Purdue (4-4) #19 Iowa 47.4% 7-5
Minnesota (4-4) @ Illinois 70.4% 5-7
Charlotte (4-4) @ Tennessee 6.4% 4-8
Southern Miss (3-4) Marshall 32.4% 4-7
BYU (4-4) @ Boise State 16.1% 6-6
Toledo (4-4) Ball State 87.5% 7-5
USC (4-4) @ Oregon State 86.8% 7-5
Arizona State (4-4) #16 Utah 31.0% 6-6
Missouri (4-4) @ #13 Florida 30.0% 7-5
Louisiana-Monroe   (4-4) Georgia Southern 22.4% 5-7
Louisiana-Lafayette (4-4) @ Troy 19.3% 7-5
Arkansas State (4-4) South Alabama 86.6% 8-4
Nevada (5-4) BYE N/A 8-4
Hawaii (6-4)* #18 Utah State 10.8% 7-6

 

4 Win-3 Loss Teams

Team

Upcoming Opponent

ESPN FPI Chance of Victory

FPI Projected Final Record

Virginia Tech (4-3) #24 Boston College 50.2% 7-4
Iowa State (4-3) @ Kansas 79.5% 8-4
Liberty (4-3) @ UMass 43.7% 6-6 (5 eligible wins)
Akron (4-3) Northern Illinois 35.6% 5-6
South Carolina (4-3) @ Ole Miss 49.7% 5-6

 

5 Win Teams

Team

Upcoming Opponent

ESPN FPI Chance of Victory

FPI Projected Final Record

Temple (5-3) @ #9 Central Florida 15.9% 7-5
NC State (5-2) Florida State 75.5% 10-2
Miami (5-3) Duke 74.6% 9-3
Duke (5-3) @ Miami 25.4% 7-5
Texas Tech (5-3) #7 Oklahoma 28.4% 8-4
Oklahoma State (5-3) @ Baylor 65.9% 7-5
Michigan State (5-3) @ Maryland 61.5% 8-4
Maryland (5-3) Michigan State 38.5% 5-7
Northwestern (5-3) #3 Notre Dame 27.8% 7-5
Wisconsin (5-3) Rutgers 96.7% 7-5
Middle Tennessee    (5-3) Western Kentucky 86.8% 7-5
Marshall (5-2) @ Southern Miss 67.6% 8-3
Ohio (5-3) @ Western Michigan 46.4% 7-5
Northern Illinois (5-3) @ Akron 64.4% 8-4
Nevada (5-4) Colorado State 81.1% 8-4
Stanford (5-3) @ Washington 26.6% 8-4
Oregon (5-3) UCLA 77.0% 8-4
California (5-3) @ #10 Washington St 18.5% 6-6
Colorado (5-3) @ Arizona 37.4% 5-7
#25 Texas A&M (5-3) @ Auburn 38.2% 7-5
#21 Mississippi State (5-3) Louisiana Tech 92.7% 8-4
Auburn (5-3) #25 Texas A&M 61.8% 7-5
Ole Miss (5-3) South Carolina 50.3% 7-5 (Bowl Ineligible)
Appalachian State    (5-2) @ Coastal Carolina 85.9% 9-2
Coastal Carolina (5-3) Appalachian State 14.1% 6-6

 

Alright.  Several notable changes from last week.  First of all, I added a metric (because who doesn’t want to do more work?).  I decided to go ahead and use the ESPN FPI to project each team’s final record, meaning we can track week to week the projected number of teams that will and will not be bowl eligible at season’s end.  Right now, the projected number of eliminated teams sits at 55, but includes Liberty at 6-6 with only 5 eligible wins.  Should Liberty pull off a 7-5 or 6-6 record with 6 eligible wins, that number of 54 eliminated teams would put them in a bowl game.  The Flames have an agreement in place with the Cure Bowl, however which game Liberty would be in would not be determined until the Sun Belt and American Athletic Conference results shake out.  Keep reading though, A LOT is likely to change.  Tons of projected 5-7, 6-6, and 7-5 teams out there.