It’s never too early to set some expectations.

Liberty football finished 8-4 last year, a bit disappointing after 2023’s 13-1 CUSA championship and Fiesta Bowl appearance. The Flames are now looking to achieve a seventh straight bowl game and compete for the conference championship this coming season.

With football’s return on the horizon, it’s time to look ahead and release our very early projections for the upcoming season. I rank each matchup with the following labels: Solid Win, Lean Win, Toss-Up, Lean Loss, and Solid Loss.

Note: SP+ offensive and defensive rankings courtesy of ESPN. All over/under win totals courtesy of DraftKings. For context, Liberty ranks 62nd in offensive SP and 69th in defensive SP for the upcoming season and has an O/U of 9.5 wins.

Aug. 30: Home vs Maine (Off. SP: N/A, Def. SP: N/A, O/U N/A)

Solid Win: As long as Liberty comes out focused and read to play football to open the season in week 1, this should be a comfortable win for the Flames to open up the 2025 campaign.

Sept. 6: Road at Jacksonville State (Off. SP: 105th, Def. SP: 99th, O/U 6.5)

Toss-up: Yes, this is a much different team from last year’s Jax State squad that won the CUSA Championship, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have some talent. You know the Gamecocks have this game circled on their calendar all summer as they look to get a marquee early season win to open the Charles Kelly era in style.

Sept. 13: Road at Bowling Green (Off. SP: 98th, Def. SP: 121st, O/U 6.5)

Lean Win: There are a lot of unknowns about Bowling Green entering the season. While that can be said of nearly every team in college football this season in the transfer portal era, it is more apparent for the Falcons who hired a new head coach in Eddie George in the spring. With the Flames being in their third season under Chadwell, Liberty should be ahead of Bowling Green.

Sept. 20: Home vs James Madison (Off. SP: 49th, Def. SP: 52nd, O/U 7.5)

Lean Loss: This is the non-conference game we are looking forward to and understandably so. Maybe a little controversial to have this game in the lean loss category, especially with it at home, but this will be the biggest regular season test the Flames have had under Coach Chadwell. The Dukes are expected to compete for a Sun Belt title under their second year head coach Bob Chesney. They will come to Williams Stadium looking for a marquee non-conference win and in-state bragging rights.

Sept. 27: Road at Old Dominion (Off. SP: 101st, Def. SP: 194th, O/U 6.5)

Lean Win: Liberty has dominated the series against the Old Dominion Monarchs since the two moved to the FBS ranks, winning four straight against the in-state foe. The Monarchs should be in the mix fighting for bowl eligibility once again. This won’t be an easy win for the Flames on the road.

Oct. 8: Road at UTEP (Off. SP: 122nd, Def. SP: 113th, O/U 5.5)

Lean Win: UTEP showed some improvement in the second half of the season last year under first year head coach Scotty Walden. With a strong recruiting class, the Miners seem to be moving in the right direction. They will certainly have this game circled in their final year in CUSA before moving to the Mountain West, but Liberty should be favored.

Oct. 14: Home vs New Mexico State (Off. SP: 106th, Def. SP: 124th, O/U 4.5)

Solid Win: I don’t have much confidence that Tony Sanchez can get New Mexico State back to where they were under Jerry Kill. They should be able to win a few games in CUSA and compete in the middle of the pack to try and become bowl eligible, but Liberty should take care of business against the Aggies at home.

Nov. 1: Home vs Delaware (Off. SP: 113th, Def. SP: 105th, O/U 5.5)

Lean Win: The Blue Hens are new to the FBS and CUSA, but they should be competitive and have some decent early FBS tenure success like we’ve seen from both Jax State and Sam Houston. The Flames should be favored in this one though, especially at home.

Nov. 8: Home vs Missouri State (Off. SP: 76th, Def. SP: 136th, O/U 4.5)

Solid Win: Like Delaware, Missouri State is also a new addition to the FBS and CUSA this season. They should also be respectable, but Liberty should be ahead of them and able to take care of business in this one.

Nov. 15: Road at FIU (Off. SP: 124th, Def. SP: 118th, O/U 5.5)

Lean Win: I like the hire of Willie Simmons as FIU head coach. He has had a lot of success in the FCS as a head coach, and he should be able to get the Panthers at least to the middle of CUSA and competing for bowl games in time. Will that be this year? It could, but Liberty should be favored in this one. Also of note, the Flames playing in Miami in mid-November when the heat and humidity shouldn’t be a problem like it can when making this trip earlier in the year.

Nov. 22: Road at Louisiana Tech (Off. SP: 126th, Def. SP: 80th, O/U 5.5)

Lean Win: Sonny Cumbie is likely in a make it or break it season for his job in Ruston. Will he still be coaching the Bulldogs this late in the season? If so, his team should play inspired for their head coach. This won’t be an easy game for the Flames, but Liberty should once again be favored in this one.

Nov. 29: Home vs Kennesaw State (Off. SP: 136th, Def. SP: 93rd, O/U 3.5)

Solid Win: We all know what happened in this game last year, but this time this game is at home and the Flames will not overlook the Owls.

Final updated predictions:

  • Solid Win: 4, Lean Win: 6, Toss-up: 1, Lean Loss: 1 
  • best-case scenario: 11-1, realistic record: 10-2, wouldn’t be shocked: 9-3

How realistic are these predictions? What are your predictions?