andohWe haven’t spent much time discussing the men’s basketball team this season other than simply bringing you game previews and reactions for each game. Well, now that football seasons is clearly in the rear view, and the Christmas holiday has passed, we don’t have much else to cover. Liberty is currently 6-7. Here’s a look at the team’s progress thus far with conference play starting on New Year’s Eve:

The wins

  • The record is inflated with 4 wins over non-Division I opponents. Beating Randolph, Bluefield, Central Penn, and Cincinnati Christian won’t do much other than help the team’s confidence.
  • Delaware. It seems like a century ago, but at the time felt like a good win. It took the team to 2-0 for the first time since 2000, and came against the reigning CAA champs. We all knew Delaware was facing a rebuild, but they haven’t won yet. The Blue Hens are 0-10 and check in with an RPI of 343.
  • Furman is the best win Liberty has on the season. The Paladins are 2-8 with their only wins coming against Appalachian State (RPI 217) and Samford (RPI 330).

The losses

The “best” loss came in overtime to UNC Wilmington whose RPI is 114. Losing to North Florida (RPI 153) is understandable. The rest of the losses, Virginia Tech included, come against teams with RPIs worse than 250. The 7 teams the Flames have lost to have a combined record of 35-49.gielo

The roster

  • Tomasz Gielo. He played the first 7 games of the season and looked like he would be the senior leader the Flames needed. You saw it in the Delaware game when he willed the team to victory with his emotion and passion. His offensive ability has been dearly missed while he’s been out the last 6 games. He was averaging 12 points and 6.3 rebounds per game while shooting over 40% from 3. No other Flame is averaging double figures. The most recent update on his injury status is that he’s out until mid-January. The longer he’s out, the tougher it will be for Liberty to compete in conference play.
  • Drew Smith. The other senior forward. He really struggled offensively in the first 3 games of the year as he totaled 11 points on 4/15 shooting. Since then he’s picked it up a bit. Smith has been in double figures scoring in 6 of his last 10 games. Drew has also been a beast on the boards, leading the team with 7.4 per game.
  • Joe Retic was expected to be a leader in the backcourt the Flames are desperately in need of after graduating so many last season. At times, Liberty’s offense has been unable to do anything with Retic off the floor. At times, the same could be said with him on the floor. Retic is averaging 6.3 points, 5.8 assists, and 3.8 turnovers per game.
  • A pleasant surprise this season has been JUCO transfer David Andoh. Andoh is averaging 8.8 points and 6.3 boards per game. He has shown the ability to step out to 17 feet and knock down a jumper or attack the basket. He is the prototypical 4 man in the Big South. Only problem is what do you do with Drew Smith if Andoh deserves starter’s minutes?
  • After a lot of hype in October, Peter Moller has underwhelmed. The freshman from Germany is averaging 7.9 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 1.4 assists per game. His scoring numbers drop to 5.7 per game if you take out the 4 games against non-DI opponents.
  • After transferring in from San Diego State, James Johnson is averaging 8.3 points and 3.7 rebounds per game while manning the 5 spot for LU. It’s been an up and down go of it for James. He’s had games where he looks nearly unstoppable (Randolph, Central Penn), and others where he has been rather pedestrian (Morgan State, Furman, UNCW). His production through conference play may be one of the Flames’ biggest keys.
  • Theo Johnson, a transfer from the College of Charleston, is averaging 6.4 points and 3.3 boards per game. He has slotted in to Gielo’s starting wing spot since Tomasz was injured.
  • A. C. Reid, the freshman guard, is out indefinitely with a broken nose. He has shown glimpses of his potential as a 3-point shooter. He’s averaging 4.6 points per game while shooting 35% from 3-point range. Sounds like Reid will not be ready for the conference opener.

The prognosis

Liberty’s RPI has been at or near the bottom of all Division I teams most of December. Out of 351 DI teams, the Flames are currently 350. Strength of schedule is also 350. For those of you that are KenPom true bloods, LU is ranked 310 according to his matrix. No matter how you look at it, it’s not good. As bad as Liberty basketball has been at times over the past decade or so, the Flames have only finished with an RPI 300 or worst once since 2006. The one time was last year when the Flames finished at 313.

It’s hard to get your hopes up for a team that has lost 60 games over the past 3 seasons and is 2-7 against Division I opponents this season, but what should we expect? TeamRankings.com projects a final record of 13-18 overall and 7-11 in conference play. RealTimeRPI projects a final record of 11-20 and 5-13.moller

If you’re looking for an area of improvement the Flames can make to compete in the Big South, it’s on the offensive side of the ball. In their 9 Division I games this season, Liberty has reached the 70 point mark just once, and that came in the overtime game against UNCW. In 5 of the 9 games, the Flames have failed to score 60 including a season low 47 against Princeton.

We’d be remiss if we didn’t mention Liberty’s other biggest issue, turnovers. It’s been their Achilles heel all season. The Flames rank dead last in the Big South in turnover margin, and next to last in assist/turnover ratio. Just once in their nine Division I games have the Flames finished with a positive assist/turnover ratio. LU is averaging nearly 18 turnovers a game, and has surpassed 20 turnovers 3 times.

As fans of the Big South, we all know that conference play is all that matters though. 18 games, beginning Wednesday at Campbell where the Flames hope to pick up their first win away from the Vines Center this season.