ESPN’s Football Power Index has ranked Liberty as #117 out of 130 FBS programs entering the 2018 season, the Flames’ first as a member of college football’s top classification.
The FPI projection has Liberty winning 4.5 games in 2018. Liberty’s two matchups with FCS programs are given the highest win probability with a 95.8% likelihood of beating Norfolk State and 88.7% chance of beating Idaho State. The only other game FPI gives Liberty a greater than 50% chance of winning is the season finale against New Mexico State (51.1%).
The season and home opener on September 1st against Old Dominion is virtually a toss-up according to FPI, with the Flames having a 48.9% chance of knocking off the Monarchs. In 6 games, Liberty is given between a 19.4% to 32.6% chance of winning. The back-to-back matchups with Power 5 opponents in November are the least likely wins on the 2018 calendar, according to FPI. In the November 10th meeting in Charlottesville with Virginia, Liberty is given an 11.7% chance at a win. The following week the Flames are at Auburn for its first ever meeting with an SEC opponent and are given only a 0.8% chance at a win against the 7th best FPI team.