Charlottesville Regional Preview

Yesterday it was announced that Liberty will be headed to the Virginia Regional along with Arkansas and Bucknell. Here’s a bit of what you should expect from the other teams in the regional:

1. Virginia 44-13, 29-3 at home, RPI: 1st, 5th consecutive year as a regional host

After growing up a UVA fan as a kid, when I came to Liberty I always said that I hoped Liberty’s athletics got to a point where I wouldn’t be able to root for both the Cavs and Flames. Well here we are.

Team average-.277
Team opponent average-.203

The third overall seed in this year’s NCAA tournament presents a pitching staff that has 11 pitchers with sub 3.5 ERAs, and 10 of those pitchers having at least 20 innings of experience this season. There is a good chance the Flames will find themselves up against Virginia ace, Nathan Kirby, if they face one another in the second round but it remains to be seen whether head coach, Brian O’Connor, will try to save his ace for the Cavs’ second round game or if he will use him first. If Kirby pitches against Bucknell the Flames would likely face Brandon Waddell (2.73 ERA) or Artie Lewicki (1.99 ERA), who are both very good pitchers in their own right. The Flames have already seen Lewicki first hand when he pitched a one hitter in seven innings of work when Liberty fell to UVA 8-2 three weeks ago. If matched up, Liberty would also have a tough time completing one of their patented late game comebacks against Virginia closer, Nick Howard, who has a remarkable 18 saves on the year.

Virginia spent much of their season as the number one team in the nation, but, much like Liberty, stumbled a bit near the end. The Cavs lost their final series of the season to Wake Forest, then were unable to make it to the ACC Tournament final.

Dangerous batters:
Joe McCarthy .305-AVR .476-SLG 6-HRs,
Mike Papi .289-AVG .487-SLG 10-HRs
John La Prise .367-AVG .461-SLG
Derek Fisher .283-AVG .425-SLG

 

2. Arkansas 38-23, 5-3 at neutral, RPI: 32nd, 13th consecutive NCAA tournament appearance

Liberty’s first round matchup against the Razorbacks should be a pretty tight game. Though baseball seeding is based much more upon geographic location than merit, with UVA as the three seed, Arkansas and Liberty would technically be the 29th and 35th seeds respectively, comparable to an 8-9 matchup in basketball.

Team average-.263
Team opponent average-.216

The Razorbacks are another team that features a plethora of solid pitchers with eight pitchers at or under a 3.52 ERA and at least 20 innings of experience this season. Arkansas’ best pitcher, Trey Killian, has a deceiving 4-8 record on the season but an impressive 2.18 ERA in over 90 innings of work. Coach, Dave van Horn will probably go with Killian against the Flames, but if not, Liberty will likely face Chris Oliver who has garnered a 2.54 ERA in 88 innings of work. They also have their own Clowers-Marsh versions in relief, with Michael Gunn (.84 ERA) and Jacob Stone (.99 ERA).

Arkansas fared pretty well in the SEC Tournament, going 3-2 with both losses to LSU (eventual champs).

Dangerous batters:
Brian Anderson .311-AVG .469-SLG 6-HRs
Eric Fisher .265-AVG .452-SLG 9-HRs
Clark Egan .311-AVG .415-SLG

3. Liberty 41-16, 5-3 at neutral, RPI: 30th, 2nd straight tournament appearance

I sort of painted a grim outlook for Liberty in my last post, which wasn’t my intention, but I don’t think it’s any secret that the Flames can’t play like they have recently and expect to move past the regionals. With that said, Liberty  has the pieces to play with anyone in the nation.

Team average-.276
Team opponent average-.221

The Flames have set the bar high for themselves this season after their best year in program history. Liberty recorded 41 wins, had a 20 game conference winning streak at one point, received the program’s first at-large berth to the tournament, and even garnered some hosting talk this year.

The Flames are led by Big South Player of the Year, Ryan Seiz (.612 SLG), and Big South Pitcher of the Year, Trey Lambert (2.1 ERA). Much of the Flames’ success will depend on what the rest of the team does. Freshman, Parker Bean (2.71 ERA) has shown how good he can be this year, but has struggled lately. He will be key as Bean will probably be the starter in round 2. Unfortunately the Flames’ pitching staff has been a bit thin overall since Carson Herndon’s season was ended by Tommy John surgery. Meanwhile, one area the Flames will excel is behind their relief pitchers Matt Marsh (.54 ERA) and Shawn Clowers (.89 ERA). Both Marsh and Clowers have been amazing for the Flames, and expect them to be able to shut teams down while their opponents’ bullpens wear down.

Bittersweet to say the least. Proud of the guys! #shocktheworld

— Carson Herndon (@Cherndon23) May 26, 2014

The Flames made the final in the South Carolina Regional last year, with a better team this season, expect the Flames to have their sights set on winning in Charlottesville.

Dangerous Batters:
Ryan Seiz .362-AVG .612-SLG 12-HRs
Alex Close .324-AVG .505-SLG 8-HRs
Dalton Britt .300-AVG

4. Bucknell 30-19-1, 7-4-1 at neutral, RPI: 110th, 1st tournament appearance since 2010

The Patriot League champion Bison are a bit of an outlier in the group with an RPI ranking 110th. As the fourth seed in the regional, they’ll be pitted against the number one team in RPI.

Team average-.249
Team opponent average-.254

I don’t really see the Bison contending in this regional, especially with their best hitter, Corey Furman (.388-AVG .560-SLG) out with an injury. Their pitching staff features Dan Weigel (2.94 ERA) and Bryson Hough (4.37) as the two main starting pitchers. If Liberty were to meet Bucknell in round two, I’d expect to either face Hough or Andre Andreychick (3.56 ERA). Though their starting pitchers haven’t been the most dominant, the Bison do have some quality arms in the bullpen.

I’m sure they won’t just roll over, but expect the Bison to be two and done.

Dangerous Batters:
Joe Ogren .324-AVG .406-SLG
Anthony Gingerelli .312-AVG .525-SLG 5-HRs
Brett Smith .303-AVG